The stock market continues to exhibit historic price swings leaving investors and traders flummoxed. A confluence of factors is creating uncertainty unlike anything seen since 2008. In times like these, it’s helpful to take inventory of the factors driving the market which can help restore some level of rational thinking. Here goes:

1.  Oil prices: The latest development in the market saga is the collapse of oil prices. Saudi Arabia has initiated a price war which threatens the global energy complex. The bottom line here is that Saudi Arabia can turn a profit on low oil prices whereas other countries will not fare as well. In particular, the U.S. shale companies could feel the pain which could prove disruptive to states that have built their economies around the shale boom. Over 6 million people employed by the oil and gas sector in the U.S. which can prove devastating if job losses ensue. Bright side: lower oil prices means lower gas prices which could help the consumer.

2.  Covid19: The media is announcing new cases in real time and it’s too difficult to predict how this plays out. Clearly, this is a global crisis and one that could play out in a number of ways. Cases could accelerate or the severity of the virus could increase. In any case, fear breeds caution which invariably affects spending. Bright side: a vaccine or containment measure may help slow the spread of the virus.

3.  Treasury yields: As investors de-risk their portfolios, Treasury buying has pushed prices higher and yields lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury currently stands at .5 percent. While still above zero, it’s actually negative when adjusted for inflation. The problem with individuals and institutions locking money into treasuries means that capital for growth projects may be limited. And that doesn’t bode well for the economy. Bright side: with borrowing costs low, increased consumer borrowing may provide a needed jolt to the economy.

4.  2020 election: Adding to the market uncertainty is the 2020 presidential election. Who eventually wins the Democratic nomination and what happens in the general election is creating an additional level of market anxiety. Bright side: We only have eight months before this is resolved.

Keep an eye on each of these four factors for indications of where the market moves next. 

Reuben Advani is the author of The Wall Street MBA (McGraw-Hill) and Executive Chairman of the Investment Banking Institute.